fnieuwenhuis's Xanga

Cold but not much snow

Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:33:09 GMT

I'm thinking the next possible storm of any significance will be right around Christmas day. Until then, cold.

YFNWG

Update: Latest GFS forecast for Christmas Day:

Music Bar

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:25:34 GMT

I've added a music module to my blog. I hope to change the festive music that plays on a daily basis. So please visit daily.

YFNWG

Word for the rest of the month

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:44:49 GMT

Cold.

YFNWG

Precedence

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:40:12 GMT

If I said once, I've said it a million times, the argument against AGW should be a matter of precedence: if it has happen before, it can happen again. Co-relation (with current CO2 levels) does not mean causation.

One of the leaked emails from CRU spoke about "containing" the MWP (Medevial Warm Period). Given the context, that could only be interpreted as "minimize". They were successful as can be seen by the wide propagation of the "hockey stick" temperature graphic.

The link below is a discussion on Greenland temperatures derived from ice cores. It clearly shows that the present temperatures are not unprecedented, even looking at a "young earth" time scale. But you may say, well that only Greenland. True. But I will contend that it is impossible for one region to be warmer for hundreds of years without it being a global phenomenon. Weather patterns just won't allow it.

See for yourself:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/09/hockey-stick-observed-in-noaa-ice-core-data/

YFNWG

LES underway

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 13:17:00 GMT

All that blue in the southern Ontario region is LES. So the snow we are/will be getting is LES...

Here's the possible totals.

YFNWG

Beginning of a movement in the Climate Science community??

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:48:09 GMT

For change:

http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/petr-chylek/

YFNWG

Env. Can. comes around

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:07:09 GMT

To the little/no rain idea for tomorrow. Given that, the snow amount will go up.. Their latest forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy periods. 30 percent chance of flurries early this evening. Wind becoming east 30 km/h overnight. Low minus 8.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Snow at times heavy beginning early in the morning. Amount 15 cm. Local blowing snow. Wind east 40 km/h gusting to 60 becoming light in the afternoon. High plus 1.
Wednesday night: Snow changing to rain showers in the evening then to flurries after midnight. Wind becoming southwest 20 km/h late in the evening. Low minus 2.
Thursday: Periods of snow. High minus 1.

YFNWG

Update: Env Can Storm Warning:

Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
3:08 PM EST Tuesday 08 December 2009
Winter storm warning for
Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans upgraded from Winter storm watch

..Snow heavy at times accompanied by strong easterly wind beginning tonight..

This is a warning that dangerous winter weather conditions are imminent or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A winter storm intensifying over the southwestern states is moving towards the upper Great Lakes.

Snow associated with this system will begin late this afternoon in Southwestern Ontario, in the evening in Toronto and reach the national Capital region just before dawn on Wednesday.

Strong easterly winds near 60 km/h will accompany the snow tonight and Wednesday significantly lowering visibilities in blowing snow. Periods of heavy snow are also likely. Snow amounts will range from 10 to 15 centimetres with 20 centimetres or more towards Ottawa Valley. Lesser amounts are likely along the shore of Western Lake Ontario as snow could be wet.

Snow will end or change to rain from west to east through the day Wednesday.

More statements or warnings will be issued as the storm nears.

Joe Q. Public gets in the act

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:31:35 GMT

This was in the Calgary Herald:

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/billbell.pdf

YFNWG

An example of why GMST datasets need to be examined

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:54:25 GMT

The homogenization and adjustments done automatically with S/W created with very poor coding practices:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero/

YFNWG

No changes about tomorrow

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:34:04 GMT

Again, models are split with regards to the rain/snow line. The GFS, NAM and WRF are keeping it close to the lakes but the Canadian is bring it up.

Regardless, we will have heavy snow starting early tomorrow morning for about 10cm worth, possibly changing over to rain. The wind will be out of the east to start but over the coarse of the day will shift south to west. With this shift, the temperature will drop and the rain will change back to snow.

YFNWG